Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 3.052638 3.624159 4.260524 5.019799 5.899153 6.883563 8.067011
2025-07-06 2.115244 2.850362 3.763331 4.972103 6.520965 8.428556 10.944001
2025-07-13 1.710478 2.562463 3.720405 5.388258 7.703779 10.775478 15.122817
2025-07-20 1.369138 2.252801 3.552446 5.565242 8.556001 12.776929 19.108608
2025-07-27 1.138493 2.036201 3.451477 5.785693 9.461374 14.927279 23.534366
2025-08-03 0.925925 1.791556 3.247774 5.793023 10.018657 16.605137 27.435598
2025-08-10 0.730475 1.526245 2.951696 5.585276 10.181493 17.667747 30.481458
2025-08-17 0.570870 1.285943 2.647292 5.299819 10.153593 18.392623 33.031300
2025-08-24 0.470917 1.136995 2.477677 5.218618 10.451283 19.664729 36.581611
2025-08-31 0.393978 1.016791 2.338676 5.166550 10.783151 21.013851 40.375262
2025-09-07 0.354720 0.970684 2.339891 5.385996 11.644638 23.378381 46.159071
2025-09-14 0.306767 0.892100 2.256709 5.416539 12.135807 25.104282 50.934778
2025-09-21 0.262388 0.813113 2.162056 5.416743 12.584432 26.831101 55.948105
2025-09-28 0.223320 0.737960 2.062485 5.391501 12.980310 28.504223 61.037244
2025-10-05 0.214693 0.745826 2.166089 5.849270 14.468880 32.489411 70.974367
2025-10-12 0.193973 0.712590 2.159535 6.043682 15.398885 35.426552 79.083062
2025-10-19 0.177510 0.687946 2.170683 6.282590 16.456909 38.724745 88.195729
2025-10-26 0.154594 0.635559 2.095769 6.291018 16.978049 40.929638 95.233789
2025-11-02 0.127795 0.561083 1.942294 6.067376 16.913579 41.853683 99.649720
2025-11-09 0.103268 0.485925 1.769467 5.759778 16.598420 42.182799 102.804894
2025-11-16 0.088156 0.441345 1.680762 5.672261 16.826366 43.761109 108.821024
2025-11-23 0.075963 0.404111 1.607287 5.616131 17.127512 45.533941 115.411112
2025-11-30 0.070917 0.395982 1.629938 5.852709 18.238782 49.323231 126.876328